The economy has not been good since the 70’s and I wish economists would collectively pull their heads out of their asses and stop towing the line of the ones in charge.
What you or I experience is completely decoupled from the stock market, or the GDP, and has been forever.
As a person who is studying economics, I agree with you on this
It’s time for progressive socio economics
That’s the point. AI was never meant to succeed. It’s a ransom. They are willing to kill the hostages so to speak.
I can burst it quick if I invest in Nvidia and AMD.
AMD is an industry leader with a huge economic moat and I think they will be okay when the bubble pops. I’m not sure about Nvidia though, despite having superb chips, because the problem is they loaned to companies to buy their chips. So, Nvidia’s finances will be strained because Jensen Huang created a ponzi scheme that could not repay or be profitable to itself.
Not really a ponzi, more like circular financing. Nvidia exposed itself to the AI bust for no reason other than to keep the money flowing to buy their chips for a little longer. They were selling shovels in a gold rush and screwed it up by letting people finance the shovels. They’re not in the finance business, they’re in the chip business.
nvidia gives a trillion dollars to AI, AI buys a trillion dollars of future, currently unmade video cards to run the AI, nvidia gives AI another trillion dollars, AI buys another trillion dollars of unmade future cards, etc etc etc.
Its the biggest, highest energy economic ouroborus I’ve ever seen.
I cant see how nvidia survives the pop, and quite frankly, I’d be glad to see nvidia die. its been dragging the GPU market in bad directions for a decade+ now and I think it’d be better to be free of its influence… and it’d open the door to new players to step up and competition again.
I’m usually a rationalist but nothing can convince me that Sod’s Law isn’t somehow baked into the structure of the universe.
Not could. It’s a mathematical certainty that it will. Barring a breakthrough miracle – fat chance.
It really feels like the options are:
- Bubble bursts because it requires more money than the entire global economy not too at this point.
- Total regulatory capture and we just somehow keep it going forever to the detriment and gradual decay of literally everything else.
One day we shall reclaim the sullied em dash for ourselves once and for all!
An AI breakthrough has nothing to do with LLMs, it’s like saying the auto industry will collapse except if there is an AI breakthrough that saves it.
That’s what a breakthrough means. But obviously all the funding is burned up in more DCs with incremental iteration on the same design. So the bubble has to pop for real innovation. But I think this coming AI winter will be permanent, as things are very visibly falling apart.
Well yeah, but my statement is true anyways IMO. Deep neural networks are unchanged since the eighties I guess, and again IMO it’s not they who need/can have a breakthrough, doubly especially since nobody seems to be working on anything else than “bigger datasets” and profiling and such.
I don’t have any money. Crash away. Fuck it.
Yeah, some of us don’t have much money to begin with lol
Same with the GFC, 2007. I was broke, and did not even notice.
economy of paid subscriptions needs to die. ☑️
I agree, I deleted almost every app that has a subscription
If the apps have a pay once and buy once option then I keep and don’t delete
When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose.
Bob Dylan
Dylan has more good advice here, when it comes to bubbles you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows!
I didn’t know Bob Dylan was poor! /s
He was at one point in his life.
I thought I was going to learn something new, but he just seems to have done the regular job search that many artists do? He had a stable family with a house and so on, didn’t live on the street or anything. Struggled the first year to get contracts for what I read but that’s about it.
Yeah, I guess poor is over stating it. Not rich maybe.
I have hundreds of thousands of dollars to lose if the market pops lucky for time is on my side. This feels like the dot com bubble
So the top 7 companies hedged their entire futures on something unsustainable? In the last 12 months Oracle already laid off over 50,000 employees to bottom-line their AI goals (30,000 ish and 21,000ish a couple weeks ago).
Are we at the point of stocking up on materials and pulling $$ from banks for the inevitable collapse?
Listen, I work IT at a managed service provider, which means I see a dozen + small to medium business environments daily.
The number of users that I know of, out of the hundreds or thousands that I support, who are actively using “AI” continually to do their jobs… Well, I can likely count them on one hand
There’s a bunch that use whatever free tool they are allowed to access. Which kind of flies under the radar for me, but I still don’t think you’re dealing with double-digit percentages of people using “AI” that actually spend any money on it.
And these are business users, who work at businesses with rather deep pockets at times…
People are not buying the product. “AI” in the business world, isn’t making any money. So from what I’ve seen, this is less a matter of if, and more a matter of when and how bad.
As a tech person, I am not threatened by AI. It can’t do my job. Also, I’m the one who fixes it when things go wrong. And the only thing I’m looking forward to is being able to pick up cheap RAM, and storage when this all comes crashing down as AI companies cash out and liquidate their inventory. Maybe I can pick up a cheap AI server and repurpose it to be a 3D/gaming virtual desktop, so when my friends come over with their cheap laptops and on board graphics for a LAN party, I can just provision them a virtual gaming computer and we can go ham…
I’m going to save my sheckles until then…
I have limited experience with the market but I see it this way: anyone with AI holdings should liquidate at their earliest convenience. I don’t think they’ll be keeping up this charade for a lot longer. Anyone who has tech holdings, either cash out, or be prepared to have that money held up for a while because it will take a long time for the prices to recover, and unless you want to cash out at a loss, you’re going to be holding for a long time. Everyone else, hold onto your butts. Probably everything will probably dip when the fecal matter hits the rotary air movement device. Non tech areas of the market should recover pretty quickly, so meh?
This is obvious to me that the whole thing has failed. That realization hasn’t hit execs yet.
AI chips arnt usable for personal use though, they seem to be limited to be used by the AI datancenters and not your computers
some AI coprocessors, you’re right. they can’t be used.
Most of what nVidia is offering, while lacking display outputs, can still be used for gaming/VDI/vGPU use, and in general aren’t particularly bad at it, usually quite the opposite. might take a bit of work to get them going, and nVidia hasn’t made it easy with their whole licensing thing. Putting aside the challenges, it’s usually possible to adapt their SXM datacenter GPU modules to work with more common frameworks like PCIe, and then utilize those as virtual GPUs in a virtual desktop. This is not dissimilar to what they’re doing with the geforce now platform.
The big benefit of the chips is that they come with loads of memory, so cutting them up as a vGPU is actually a really optimal use-case. Most games are memory limited, which is to say they need more memory than most GPUs have, so the limit in performance is from the memory limitations, not the graphics processing limitations.
The AI processors that are GPU based, like almost everything that nvidia is using, can mostly be repurposed, but those that are ML-only, like AI coprocessors that show up in CPUs like the AI optimized CPUs from AMD and Intel, can’t really be re-used, but they’re usually not released as a standalone product. Those may still be able to perform physics processing offloads… so maybe not useless? I’m not sure.
Not strictly, there are usualy hurdles to overcome for home usage of datacentre tech, but it’s possible.
An easy example that comes to mind is that the datacentre GPU’s might have cooling configurations that rely on a large amount of airflow from the surrounding cabinet, which you’ll get in a datacentre, but not so much in a personal tower.
Also, noise, in a datacentre, noise is much less of an issue than in a personal computer, so they can eschew noise reduction in favour of performance.
Many people that live near data-centres would disagree, but i mean strictly from a usage point of view, not a broader community perspective.
Not strictly, there are usualy hurdles to overcome for home usage of datacentre tech, but it’s possible.
The hurdles are basically insurmountable with the hardware released after 2024.
The NVL72 for the Blackwell generation cost about $3 million and takes up a single server rack. The power consumption is about 130 kW, and most configurations require dedicated plumbing for the liquid cooling.
To put things in perspective, a residential electrical hookup is usually 50A or 100A for a house, with recommendations that anyone who is going to be charging electric cars should have 100A service. 100A at 240V is 24 kW.
So one server rack uses as much power as the maximum electrical capacity of 5 homes. You’ll never be able to pull that off in an actual residential environment.
Oh, and the newest 2026 generation, the Rubin NVL72s, use something like 230 kW of electrical power, almost twice as much as the previous 2024 generation.
i was talking more of the prosumer and close to prosumer units that could theoretically be retrofitted or housed in homelabs.
If datacentres went down en-masse i’d assume there’d be mix of hardware generations there.
Damn though, i didn’t know anything about the stuff you just mentioned, so my estimates of what could be available/usable are probably way off.
Now i have to go and do a deep dive, thanks.
could, you mean will. when that happens all those tech people in AI will likely be first to be laid off, the first signs would be the sudden evaporation of AI tech conferences in many hubs,. and all those catering companies, food companies that depend on these conferences is going to hurt too.
AI isn’t going away just like dotcom companies didn’t go away. They are in for a steep hair cut though and many companies will not survive.
The scumbags are getting better at making sure they end up rich when it happens. The only important thing from their point of view.
Sigh. Guess I’m gonna go read Ed Zitron’s latest rant.
Haven’t read it yet, no idea what he’s on about today, but here’s the link.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose/Two years ago, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said that “the more you buy, the more you save,”
Well, two years ago he was kind of right. But not in the way he meant it. But I should have bought 64gb instead of 32gb RAM when I built my gaming system
For what? I have 64gb and have almost never utilized it all. Maybe if I used integrated graphics running modded factorio on a big map with all of the graphics overhauls.
Future, not present, requirements.
I rarely hit 16GB but to each their needs!
To sell the unused 32gb at a maybe profit?
I am entirely disconnected from “the economy”. Fuck AI and fuck the market. Tech cunts have it coming.
So you don’t go grocery shopping?
Did you know the economy has doubled every 20 years, with productivity alongside it, but the benefits don’t show up for us down here?
We should have a 3/4 day workweek with cheap good food, early retirement etc etc but we don’t.
And I’m saying this living in the EU.
When the economy crashes, and it will, rich peoole won’t suffer, they will enrich themselves even more. Its always the poor that suffer
And how does one become disconnected from ‘the economy’?
Lying to yourself is a really good start, followed closely by not buying food or services like internet
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What good will that be 'gainst the 20 stout men and their crossbows that will besiege you on the high road as you go to market on the Lord’s Day?
Please do. I’m tired of reading PKD novels, they’re more fun happening IRL.
This is going to be a mix of the 2000 Crash and the 2008 Crash.
mix
You misspelled multiplication
Possibly even compounding, considering that there are more than just a Tech Stocks bubble and Realestate bubble at the moment (though those 2 are the largest) and any one blowing will probably cause the rest to blow.
On the “upside”, the Tech Stocks bubble is mainly in the US and countries with semiconductors as a large fraction of their Economy, such as South Korea.
