My guess is they’re not a 50/50 binary. Like how in sports betting one team is favored over another to win, maybe its a 45/55 split. So if any given military action has a 5% chance of happening and a 95% chance of non happening, the overall aggregate of bets on this kind of thing should pretty closely mirror that 95/5 split.

Not quite. Mickey Mouse is still a trademark of Disney, but the actual animation of Steamboat Willie is in the public domain, so using the mouse in a way that promotes brand confusion is a no go but using Steamboat Willie is perfectly fine.

You mean the one that is already in use?

Sometimes you plug a new device into the TV that you got after you mounted a TV.

You’re not alone! I’ll gladly listen to him explain the refrigeration cycle again and again and again and how everything is just a worse heart pump.