I don’t see how they’re going to meet their revenue projections when open models are largely turning LLMs into a free commodity. So far in 2026, we’ve gone from local LLMs being a toy to Qwen 3.8 27B giving the latest Sonnet 5 a run for its money. The OpenCode desktop app is also almost at parity with the Claude desktop app as well and I’ve heard Pi is pretty good too.
Now we are seeing techniques like a “phrase book” evolving to allowing a large portion of a huge model to reside on a SSD instead of in RAM / VRAM so that Opus-class models can run on a gaming PC. For example, this video is nuts: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IH8XmxiwliQ
OpenAI and Anthropic know they’re cooked, so that’s why they’re talking all this nonsense trying to keep the shell game going a while longer. 🍿
The guy goes fuzzball on telling everyday AI is going to kill us all, then “well I can’t IPO, people are afraid”?
Well, guess what my little boy, what did you expect?
Sam, we don’t believe you, you make no sense at all, you liar piece of shit.
He has a simple, but actually complicated task: boost AI hype, but reduce the competition, ESPECIALLY on the side of open source Chinese models.
That’s the sole reason for “AI is cool, but dangerous, and we must control it” and “We must break free from China” rhetoric. He is tasked to make AI grow as a proprietary technology, so that there’s any chance at all to recoup the immense investment that was made. If open, local LLMs maintain their position, OpenAI cannot leverage its own position to demand exorbitant prices for access to ChatGPT - and that is the key condition to recoup all of the investments that were made.
The tech CEO’s are playing into fears of AI, because their development didn’t meet their hype.
There is no doubt, they don’t give a fuck and we all should know it. They believe in nothing except self advancement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vQaVIoEjOM
Don’t believe the Hype. Yeeeeaah boooyy.
“So, how do you make your money?” “I lie”.
They can’t go public.
I bet they end up merging or being bought long before they’re actually ready to go public.
They can’t go public.
I think that rising interest rates (e.g. by the ECB) because of more expensive oil and empty national reserves wouldn’t make that easier.
More likely its because they need more time to cook their books.
If they cook any longer, it’s going to look worse than the venison bones I forgot I was roasting for stock that one time.
On the plus side, the whole kitchen enjoyed playing predator with the burnt to fuck spine.
I think no one wants to hold the bag.
Just another scam, move along
It’s got nothing to do with safety, he doesn’t have the numbers to go public and is trying to mask that.
Ya, these are the people who absolutely gave zero fucking shits about safety up until the point they realized they couldn’t hand off the bag to the public.
My $0.02 is that Dario genuinely believes* this, Sam doesn’t, but it’s convenient for OpenAI to hitch its wagon to Anthropic’s call for regulation because their financials are a mess.
- just because his belief is genuine doesn’t mean it’s reasonable. I find the whole thing kind of laughable actually.
There’s no way Dario really believes this. He knows “AI safety” is the only way to keep the hype train going; otherwise the bubble pops immediately.
What kind of numbers do they need?
https://www.wheresyoured.at/ He’s laid out what they need in painstaking detail.
Revenue growth that suggests a path to profitability would be a start.
For the evaluation OpenAI and its investors would target, they would need pretty great ones. But another thing is that they’d also need to look good relative to anthropic, who is also looking at an IPO.
Not sure if their plan for it has changed,but OpenAI would always be measured against them. And my understanding is that anthropic is said to have better financials while having raised less investment money so far.
There is only so much liquidity for IPOs and SpaceX already vacuumed up a lot. If both openai and and anthropic would IPO as an option for investors to buy into a pure play, I assume everyone would compare the two and go for the perceived winner (or want a good discount for the second best)
This is what we get for Musk keeping Trump balls warm. Probably the same reason we see Tesla back with the majority of US EV sales. Fuckin racket. If the spacex and grok deal wasnt a thing the other players might have a chance to have some skin in the IPO game. Yes, yes, why sympathize for these corporate monsters, I heard you already. Just raving about politics.
Big, I think.
Because they’re generating money with zero expectation of ever making any. Getting more customers only costs them more…
That and they haven’t met their hype. These LLMs can’t overcome a lot of problems like hallucinations on their own, due to the way it works. They promised exponential improvement, and haven’t delivered.
They don’t give a fuck about the dangers of AI obviously anyone that believes that I have an exciting investment opportunity for.
Hahaha, AI hype has already reached and past its peak, the best time to do an ipo for them is today, second best time would be tomorrow.
Sure it might be here to stay, but the gold rush FOMO phase is over.
what i heard was that ai companies now push for regulation to legitimize themselves in front of the law. that saves ai companies from the state being like “yea the party’s up we stop this and crack down on it”
same happened to bitcoin.
but idk shit :)
Don’t worry, it’s DEFINITELY not because they would need to disclose their finances to investors. Just keep pouring money in and everything will turn out fine!
No one will ever go to prison, so the scam works. Extract as much money as they can while destroying the world.
Anyone who has gone through an IPO knows how fucking rigorous all of the audits and reporting are for investors. Guaranteed 1000% that they failed the audit, or worse they didn’t even get to the audit stage, or as you said their finances they know are shit. It is zero surprise to me that they’re waiting.
Where was this rigorous audit for SpaceX?
Its result was and is aggregated by some freaks here
Their own numbers are documented here:
https://ir.spacex.com/investors/default.aspx
Including all their bullshit Musk-AI spendings. I have no idea why anyone thought this to be a good investment or a good company - they did do that audit and published the results, people still flocked (…) to it
I mean I hate Musk as much as the next Musk hater, but I can understand why SpaceX IPO’d and why OpenAI would hide their audit and finances.
SpaceX literally made self-landing rockets. They’re not a Tesla or a Boring Company bullshit scam. They did something that was amazing, and still is, and opened the door to much cheaper launches into orbit, meaning they can get so many government contracts for anything they need to do in space.
It is WAY cheaper to put stuff in orbit now thanks to SpaceX. That’s why they also went for low earth orbit internet and did starlink. Their own tech made starlink possible. Now I’d never use starlink because fuck Musk, but this is a direct result of SpaceX doing groundbreaking work.
Literally everything Musk does rides on the popularity of SpaceX actually making a massive achievement in rocketry. Tesla fucking sucks and doesn’t even make the best self driving electric vehicles. The Boring company was a failure and/or scam. Starlink is a fucked up attempt to get everyone’s data… Which would be a cooler idea if it weren’t related to Musk but I need to have a tiny bit of trust in my ISP, sorry.
Only SpaceX ever did something cool, and it was legitimately really cool, and the result of good engineers doing work that Musk took the credit for.
But the way I understand is SpaceX wasn’t going into the IPO as a rocket company, they were going as an AI company. Their value was absurdly inflated because it was not based on their current space launch business or even on Starlink, but on possible future revenue (datacenters in space, you see) from the AI side of the company, which came from the xAI merge just earlier this year. Even if the company itself is solid, their stocks were still a scam.
The falcon 9 absolutely did cut the balls off of cost to orbit. Once they cleared the backlog of launches that had built up due to the cost and slow turnaround they had nothing to launch. Starlink is their main customer and without them the Falcon 9 architecture doesn’t have the cadence required to be profitable. Starship is the new solution in need of a problem, so what’s the problem? Data centers in space! I think they’re right up against the rocket equation with starship and they’re counting on trimming the fat to make it work. We’ll see which dies first, physics or finances.
Interesting. Why haven’t new space customers turned up now that launches are far cheaper?
I don’t know. Maybe because the main use of space is research and the military and there’s only so much of either?
Oh SpaceX core business including their numbers are amazing, I agree! But they also disclosed the whole AI stuff, including the madness of “inference in space” - the physics is then only one search away. … PayPal was really cool and solved problems as well - and so did Tesla!
I think Musk is like a reverse Midas, eversthing he touches becomes shit for everyone else :/
SpaceX was by far the biggest exciting development in the last years for me … There’s still hope I’ll be wrong though - hoping for it!
Plus it’s Musk’s branding. Unfortunately people still buy into that guys brand. OpenAI doesn’t really have that kind of moat. just look at Samsung and Sk Hynix. Open AI and anthropic would have similar, if not worse fate
It’s a good point. He might have ruined his “brand” in some ways, but he always kept some people believing he’s some sort of super genius, the kind of people that think intelligence is directly proportional to your net worth.
He does some super cringe shit trying to pretend he’s a genius online and most don’t fall for it, but as long as some wealthy people do, he’ll continue to have his brand.
Also his stocks have made some people rich, are usually way overvalued, so even people that hate the fuck usually know not to bet against his stocks. He is pretty good at blatantly manipulating the fuck out of the market no matter what the news cycle is, and he never suffers consequences.
That company is fucked.
Their business burns a gallon of gas per homework assignment cheated and Anthropic does it better while China does it cheaper.
Indeed. Next year several billion dollar loans of theirs comes due, with more and larger ones the following year and so on.
I hope they go right under a rock and stay there.
I’m waiting for the movie.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt37171180/
